• exabrial 5 hours ago |
    Wars are waged through inflation. Allowing the federal government to "print money", essentially write checks on a negative account balance, is funding these forever wars.

    If you continue to support reckless taxation, this is what you will get.

    • jleyank 5 hours ago |
      the US has run deficits for years, so it's not reckless taxation in the form I think you mean. "Pay for its bills" would be a novel concept, involving undoing various "give money to rich people" tax cuts.

      In the current environment, very unlikely.

    • commandlinefan 5 hours ago |
      IIRC, the US debt is at 39 trillion right now, with no plan to pay it back. Which is logical, because it's unpayable. There's no way in the world that will ever be paid back. I still haven't seen anybody properly analyze how high the debt can go before it actually can't go any higher, but we're going to find out.
      • pfannkuchen 5 hours ago |
        Monetize it or default are the only options I think. Monetizing affects everyone while default only (directly) affects bond holders. Monetizing is much easier to obfuscate though so that is probably what will happen.
        • nradov 4 hours ago |
          Perhaps, but the monetization would have to be pretty extreme. And that would send interest rates to the moon, making further borrowing difficult.

          While these things are impossible to predict, my guess is that in a couple decades the government will do some sort of technical default. Force Treasury bond holders to exchange their current holdings at par for new bonds with longer maturities and artificially low interest rates. Politicians will be able to claim that no one has lost money since the nominal bond values will remain the same even though the market values will be much lower.

          The other thing I expect to happen is that the government will force retirement accounts (both defined benefit pension plans and defined contribution 401k plans) to purchase Treasury bonds. Because of course they're so much "safer" for retirees than risky stocks.

      • Ancalagon 5 hours ago |
        Without any funny business (meaning no re-valuation of the debt, which I guess there are strategies for) and assuming an interest rate on the debt of between 3-5%, I figured between 10-20 years before the interest payments eat up most essential services.
      • triceratops an hour ago |
        Private US wealth is in the range of 200-400 trillion. A blanket 1% annual wealth tax would wipe out the debt in 10-20 years.

        75% of US debt is held domestically. So most of that money will go back into the country.

        It's highly unlikely a lucrative revenue stream like this would ever go to paying off the debt. But theoretically the money exists.

        • carefree-bob 40 minutes ago |
          The problem is that the constitution doesn't allow for a wealth tax. If you remember, we had to pass an amendment to be able to levy a tax on income, and that amendment is clear in that it only applies to income.

          Interestingly, it was also promised to be only 1% or so on the richest households, and it has become, er, different.

          But more important to the point, as the government already taxes about 20% of income, that is equivalent to holding about 20% of the wealth, as the wealth is just an income generating device and the value of the wealth is the flow of income it generates, of which 20% is already taxed.

          What I'd like to know is why people are obsessed about stocks and flows in completely different ways. For example, not caring about the deficit but worrying about the debt, or vice versa, or focusing on taxing wealth but not really caring about taxing income.

          I think the idea of taxing income makes a lot of sense, and don't want the government to try to value assets, particularly illiquid assets. And if it was up to me, I would dramatically simplify the tax code to eliminate all deductions and tax all income at the same rate, regardless of source. No reason to have one tax rate for carried interest, another tax rate for dividend payments, a third tax rate for wage income. Treat all income the same, and apply a progressive rate to the total income. Your tax form should not be more than a page long.

          • triceratops 19 minutes ago |
            > What I'd like to know is why people are obsessed about stocks and flows in completely different ways...focusing on taxing wealth but not really caring about taxing income.

            Because wealth grows faster than income.

            r > g

            It's easy, especially for rich people with lots of wealth, to have low taxable income.

            https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Capital_in_the_Twenty-First_Ce...

            > not caring about the deficit but worrying about the debt

            Are there people like that? The debt is the sum of all deficits.

            • carefree-bob 14 minutes ago |
              I disagree that r > g over long periods, rather there are some periods where it is less and others where it is more and it basically averages out to r = g. If you do not believe that, then you have to think that capital income will be larger than GDP, which is mathematically impossible, as capital income is one component of GDP and the ratio is relatively stable over time.

              More importantly, it does not matter at all whether r > g, because both capital income and wage income are taxed. If you don't believe that, try not reporting your capital income and see how that works out.

              However, you will say, long term dividend income is taxed at a lower rate, whereas wage income is taxed at a higher rate. Correct! That is why I said that the solution to that is not to impose a wealth tax, but to tax them at the same rate. All market income should be taxed at the same rate, and that solves your r > g non-problem.

              • triceratops 11 minutes ago |
                You can choose not to realize capital income. Borrow against assets.

                If we're treating that as income too, then this is a different conversation.

  • lwansbrough 5 hours ago |
    It’s just embarrassing at this point. How long will the Americans put up with this humiliation ritual?
    • cdrnsf 5 hours ago |
      As long as a significant portion of the population continues voting for it.
      • lwansbrough 5 hours ago |
        Well let’s hope, as Bush once said, “Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice… can’t get fooled again.”
        • cdrnsf 4 hours ago |
          Hopefully. They've bene fooled into voting for him 3 times already.
          • throw310822 4 hours ago |
            The US have been fooled by Israel for the past... thirty, forty years at least? Look who Trump is sending around the world to negotiate on behalf of the US: two committed Zionists, personal friends of Netanyahu and past financers of the Israeli army. The other negotiators regard them as Israeli assets, plain and simple. While they pretend to "negotiate", Israel launches surprise attacks that have not been agreed with the US and that forces them to intervene.
        • xg15 3 hours ago |
          I read somewhere that Bush made this awkward figure of speech not because he didn't know the idiom, but because he realized too late that he'd be saying "shame on me" on air, which is apparently a phrase absolutely Verboten by political media advisors (because it could have been taken out of context and used by his adversaries). In a way that says a lot about the political culture that resulted in a figure like Trump, I think.
      • coldtea an hour ago |
        That's not why they got this.

        In fact they precisely voted someone promising no more wars, no more foreign meddling, and so on.

        And they'll get wars and the same shit after they vote the other way too. Just like they got wars under Obama.

        No matter who they vote, the bastards always win.

        • phlipski 11 minutes ago |
          They voted for a proven con-man because they hated the idea of a black woman being president. US Racism - still going strong after 250 years...
    • justonceokay 4 hours ago |
      So many people make so much money from it. I don’t personally this time but I did last time working for tech. Maybe I will again next time. This is the third time America been “humiliated” in my life and my life is awesome and getting better.

      /s

      But that is the overall sentiment if I had to describe it without pretense

    • cyanydeez 4 hours ago |
      If you take Russia as a boilerplate; never. Trump will "trickle down" the corruption to just enough people to keep everyone complacent and do as he wills.
    • Terr_ 2 hours ago |
      I think "humiliation ritual" is a hugely important concept to keep in mind these days: It has a lot of explanatory power for the stuff we're seeing in politics. (For example, televised Trump cabinet meetings where the brown-nosing is almost beyond parody.)

      A cult will demand members do things to "fit in", especially things that have a cost ("prove your sincerity") and also things which alienate them from the non-group. The latter is a ratcheting trap, leading to: "We are your only home now, nobody else will have you."

    • nslsm 2 hours ago |
      It’s been going on for a very long time. Remember USS Liberty?
    • ebbi 33 minutes ago |
      As long as their leaders care more about Israel than the nation they were sworn in to serve.

      The response from Ted Cruz in the interview with Tucker Carlson was glaring, yet refreshing - it went from silly conspiracy to fact, overnight.

  • Sabinus 4 hours ago |
    Is it just me, or are we taking the beginning of Iraq War v 2 very calmly?
    • AnimalMuppet 26 minutes ago |
      Far too calmly. This is exactly why the Constitution requires Congress to declare war - so that we can't wind up in a war because of the decisions of one man.

      Sure wish that was still in force...