Model | Cached Input | Input (Miss) | Output
---------------|--------------|--------------|----------
Tencent Hy4 | $0.042 | $0.83 | $2.50
DeepSeek (peak)| $0.006 | $0.30 | $1.20
DeepSeek (off) | $0.003 | $0.15 | $0.60OAI / Ant are in for a reckoning.
Personally, the thing I'm most excited about is the FrontierCode 2.0 score, which is a benchmark I trust a bit more - 31 seems to be roughly on par with 6.1 Sol and Opus 5.5 medium
So, yeah. Back to GLM 5.3.
If the gap closes, we do zero austerity, and interest rates are high, I cannot see a way out of a major economic crisis, even if we do start to see dramatic productivity wins.
More on-topic (and maybe more positive?), but this model feels a bit more expensive than I would have expected!
The only thing worse for the economy than failure would be success.
From biggest to smallest, the top three:
AIG controlled $1.05T and market cap crashed from $180B to $3.8B
Wachovia controlled $782B and market cap crashed from $110B to $1.8B
Lehman Brothers controlled $639B and market cap crashed from $60B to $200M.
Massive companies accounting for lots of money in people's retirment accounts. The companies made mistakes leading to what would have resulted or did result in defaulting on their debts. Suddenly billions of dollars vanished from retirement accounts.
We could very easily see a similar cascade of corrections if we get a few more "Alphabet missed earnings" news calls.
... What on earth. Please go outside for awhile.
Ant/OAI/Google are way ahead when it comes to the smartest, largest-scale and most compute-intensive models. By Jevons' paradox, if you make inference for leaner models cheaper (as the Chinese models do, being broadly comparable to GPT Terra or Claude Sonnet; barely approaching Opus/Sol at their very best) that only increases demand for the complementary service of very smart inference.
You have to look at the effect in the aggregate, not just what any single actor is doing. This is the core of Jevons' paradox: it's based on surfacing additional demand for the same product (here, expensive model inference) that wasn't previously viable.
If any important bank fails because of this, nationalize it and let their customers exit using money from the federal reserve. Then try and recover as much of that as possible using the banks investment portfolio. Costs a lot less than bailouts.
Modern financial system is less „finite amount of money you can move around in a logical way“ and more confidence based definitely totally not a ponzi scheme
What money are you expecting to get int hat scenario? If I had to guess it wouldn't be a fraction of the cost.
> buy out stakes of pension and index funds
Index funds are part of the reason the top companies stock gets so bloated compared to those just outsid of their frame.
>If any important bank fails because of this, nationalize it and let their customers exit using money from the federal reserve. Then try and recover as much of that as possible using the banks investment portfolio. Costs a lot less than bailouts.
I agree. It worked here in Belgium tho they did spin off toxic elements of the bank in a not so great way prior to doing this.(some regular people still got shafted)
I’ve said it for a while now both here and to friends - by Christmas next year, US AI labs will be trying to catch up with Chinese open models.
… and I think once Qwen’s latest open model beats every US labs, it’s over.
If you're going to be surveilled 24/7, at least you gotta make it work for you.
Which country are you in where you cant take "call the driver" for granted?
I don't get it.
There was CCTV at the station, your friend arrived in a taxi. And we're supposed to be amazed you can call up the taxi company and quote a numberplate off CCTV ?
Can be done anywhere in the world.
Would have been far more impressive story if she had arrived in a private car, dropped off by a work colleague or something.
No. It was just a thing that happened to me that I thought was funny and interesting, because running to the train police station and asking them to track the didi was not something I'd ever have thought to do.
I'm sorry my little anecdote didn't satisfy you.
It wasn't that. Its that you made a reference to the Chinese surveillance state in the same post. Your example didn't fit the evil-bogeyman narrative you were aiming for.
Sorry if I was unclear there.
What in the world are you talking about. If anything, I wasn't sure if recollecting that anecdote was minimizing the harm of being surveilled constantly. The last thing I expected was being accused of an "evil-bogeyman narrative."
> Sorry if I was unclear there.
Yes, thanks for clarifying. Now I understand that this has nothing to do with me or what I wrote and is 100% projection on your part.
You used the words "If you're going to be surveilled 24/7, at least you gotta make it work for you."
The implication being quite clear you were inferring it was only possible in China's surveillance state, when it was not.
How about we cordially agree to disagree and move on ?
Meanwhile, in the west, the standard of living has been eroding for the majority of the population. Technological progress is associated with layoffs, loss of agency at the workplace, and diminishing life prospects. So, it's no surprise that there is growing opposition to AI.
EDIT: typo
Verrrry thorough in its work and therefore verrrrry slow. It spent a long time with each question, running about 26 queries for each question, and in some questions it ran 64 queries. One of the queries that it wrote also took about an hour to run, which affected its overall exam time.
Last year the open weight models were the cheap & good alternatives. Then in September/October that cost story got rewritten by the GPT-6 series and Claude's 5 series.
Hy4 brings open models back on the cost/accuracy frontier, but its behavior is too thorough + slow.
Another thing we're seeing is that post training open models is starting to see results. Particle-1 from last week is also on our frontier, which is post-trained on DeepSeek V4.1 and Fireworks Ember-1 from a few weeks ago was post-trained on Kimi K3.
Take these numbers with a grain of salt: this exam is just for short horizon, low-context data analysis tasks, not full-fledged software projects.
I like that they acknowledge that. For working with ai as a tool open models are already great. For millennium problems and doomermaxxing they are not there yet.
Is this the kind of quality verbiage I’m missing out on, not using Discord?
Le cordonnier mal chaussé.
> For game development, we partnered with professional developers at Tencent Interactive Entertainment Group (IEG) to curate high-quality training data and build evaluations. We focused on feature implementation, gameplay logic, state tracking, and asset pipelines. We also extensively adapted Hy4 for major engines such as Unreal Engine, Unity, and Godot, and expanded its capabilities to multiplayer game development. Compared with Hy4 preview, Hy4 improves by 19.1% on GameDev and 9.8% on GameLogic.
Here's more about that game development studio - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tencent_Games - they've been around since 2004.
They are the Berkshire Hathaway of everything, to be honest. They invest in and acquire minority stakes in hundreds of companies.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Berkshire_Hathaway https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tencent
Eh, I'm reasonably certain it's not altruism. It's another form of competition with the US companies and I'm thankful for it while it lasts.
You can feel like companies have no responsibility for how their products are used but it might be worth showing some grace to the people who are dead now by not trying to downplay what happened to them by implying it was just like everyone else's experience of "asking ai questions".
But also cases like the 2 girls suing Snapchat and settling for unknown amounts of money.
Oh, wait…
It shouldn't be. China is the closest thing to a technocracy the world has.
I wonder how much Covid conspiracy theories play into this. If you've already been accused of making bioweapons, and the world had to shut down for three years because of them, then what's the worst that could happen to you? People accusing you of doing it again? The people that hate you already hate you, they can't really hate you and harder.
Meanwhile, in the fear based economy that America has, OpenAI is running scared of the possiblity of headlines that they helped terrorists or a high school shooter in some way. In the case of rape, we've maybe moved the conversation past "well she shouldn't have been wearing that" to "they shouldn't be raping" but in cases involving AI, we're still at the "well, what was the chatbot wearing?" stage of things.
You need to go deeper into the country to learn what's really there, but of course, the government will do anything to stop you from doing so. So you don't see it anyway.
EDIT: missed the in the train part. Could you tell us how easy it is to get access to the real Internet without using your foreign data plan?
Technocracy comes with good and bad things. For instance Chinese stop lights now feature refueling stations atop them for autonomous drones to operate indefinitely. But of course those drones will be used for domestic surveillance and other such things. So they're creating 1984, while we create Brazil. [2]
The core of the idea is still certain people trying hard to keep their social status, not tech.
Therefore, there is no inherent intention to develop tech, always to the next level. The world should not count on this to hope to have a better future.
When they're engaged in actions that are uplifting the lives of hundreds of millions and making the world an overall better place, I couldn't really care less if there's some grand evil scheme behind the curtain. I'd be rather happy to see a world filled with 'evil' people doing good things, than the current reality we live in filled with 'good' people doing evil things.
We should judge people much more by what they do, instead of by the rhetoric or inferred intent, because the former is all that matters.
And the things you're mentioning are non sequiturs similar to the initial point. China (and the US and most of every major power) is a surveillance state. That has nothing to do with whether or not they are uplifting the lives of people. Uplifting while protecting the privacy of individuals would be ideal, but that's an ideal that unfortunately does not exist anywhere.
Tencent Hy4 ties DeepSeek V4.1 Flash at 82/100, in 23.2 min for $0.30 vs 20.1 min for $2.26. Same game quality for about a seventh of the price. Cheap models keep closing the gap.
Model: https://jonclegg.github.io/pacman-bakeoff/#tencent-hy4
Closest: https://jonclegg.github.io/pacman-bakeoff/#deepseek-v4.1-fla...
The character's name is 老大哥. That is if we are talking about 1984.